As we start to come up to the time of year between turkeys (Thanksgiving to Christmas) I would like to share a story from the Black Swan.
Nicholas Nassim Taleb discusses the impact of randomness in his book, The Black Swan. In the introduction to the book he gives the description of the life of a turkey. After the Turkey is born it is moved to a farm where everyday the famer feeds and cares for the turkey. The turkey is getting accustomed to this lifestyle. This is what he was destined for — a life where everything is handed to you. Everyday, as sure as the sun rises, he is fed and cared for. Each day reinforces this perspective for five or six months until the hand that feeds him wrings his neck. This is a shock, a complete and utter surprise to the turkey!
His life ends with a complete failure of his worldview. Everything he had learned and was reinforced on a daily basis was upset on that final day. It didn’t make sense that such a shocking and ‘random’ event would occur to the turkey; however, it made perfect sense to the farmer. Taleb covers other random events and challenges the reader to think or rethink their perspective, preparedness and understanding of randomness. There are practical applications for performance management, systems design and other more practical aspects of life in Taleb’s book The Black Swan, Second Edition, Random House, New York.
Tom Kobelt
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